The Japanese Sword Market Transformed by Digitalization — The Frontlines of 3D, AI, SNS, and NFT

Digital Technology is Transforming the Japanese Sword Market

Japanese swords represent the pinnacle of traditional craftsmanship, and the "eyes and experience" of experts have held absolute authority in appreciation and evaluation. However, as we enter the 2020s, digital technology is beginning to transform every aspect of the sword market—authentication, preservation, sales, and appreciation. Will this change threaten the traditional expert culture, or will it complement it?—A report from the frontlines.

Current State of 3D Scanning and Digital Archives

High-precision 3D scanning technology is rapidly becoming widespread in the preservation and research of Japanese swords. The Tokyo National Museum and Nara National Museum are undertaking 3D data digitization projects of their National Treasure and Important Cultural Property swords, with some made available online as 3D viewers.

3D scanning offers multiple advantages:

• Precision measurement without physical contact: Data such as blade length, curvature, thickness, base width, and tip width can be recorded with 0.1mm precision.
• Tracking changes over time: By periodically scanning the same sword, subtle shape changes over time can be precisely monitored.
• International sharing and research promotion: Digital data can be shared online among international researchers, enabling comparative research without moving the original.

However, current 3D scanning technology cannot fully capture the appreciation of blade patterns and steel texture. The "nioe" (boiling effect) and "におい" (scent) of blade patterns are minute visual phenomena dependent on light reflection angles, which existing 3D technology cannot completely capture. This remains a limitation of 3D technology.

AI Authentication—Expectations and Reality

Authenticating Japanese swords and estimating manufacturing dates using AI (machine learning) is progressing through proof-of-concept experiments at the research level.

The main approaches are as follows:

Image Recognition AI: Research is underway on AI models trained on high-resolution sword photographs that estimate sword schools and periods from blade pattern characteristics. Some university research labs have developed models capable of distinguishing Kamakura-period Bizen-mono from Nanboku-cho period swords with high accuracy.

Automated Analysis of Fluorescent X-ray Spectroscopy: A statistical approach analyzing origin and period trends from steel chemical composition data (carbon, manganese, silicon content, etc.). While promising as objective reference data that eliminates human bias, regional and individual variations are significant, making it unlikely to serve as decisive evidence.

Most industry experts take the position that "AI can serve as a tool to assist human authentication, but cannot replace it." Sword authentication requires not just comparing shape data but also assessing iron grain texture, light reflection, and something like "ki" (spirit)—intuitive judgment cultivated through years of experience—which is currently impossible to replicate with AI.

Proliferation of Virtual Auctions

The COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2022) inadvertently accelerated the digitalization of Japanese sword auctions. Major auction houses—previously focused on in-person bidding (Tokyo Art Club, regional antique auctions, etc.)—established online participation systems, leading to a surge in overseas participation.

Virtual auctions offer the following advantages:

• Elimination of geographic constraints: Bidders from local areas and overseas can participate on equal footing
• Pre-auction confirmation via video: Enhanced high-resolution videos and photographs as alternatives to viewing originals
• Data analysis of bidding history: Improved market price transparency

However, challenges remain. For high-value swords (¥5 million and above), psychological barriers to bidding without seeing the original remain high. Additionally, the subtle "scenery" of the steel and delicate blade pattern variations are difficult to convey on screen, with calls for returning to in-person viewing remaining strong.

SNS and the Rise of Young Collectors

The role played by Instagram, YouTube, TikTok, and X (formerly Twitter) in promoting Japanese swords has become considerable.

Instagram: Close-up photos of blade patterns and steel texture are highly valued among collectors, with popular sword accounts reaching follower counts in the tens of thousands to over 100,000. Particularly, posts of swords photographed by young photographers from an artistic perspective attract high engagement.

YouTube: Videos of polishing processes, tatara iron-making documentaries, and interviews with swordsmiths are increasingly recording tens of thousands to millions of views. Explanatory videos in English and French, in addition to Japanese, have contributed to developing Western collectors.

"Demon Slayer" Effect: The anime that enjoyed explosive popularity from 2019-2021 expanded interest in swords among younger generations, with multiple sword museums and dealers reporting increased visitors and purchasers driven by the desire to "see a real Japanese sword."

NFTs and Japanese Swords—Experimental Initiatives

During the NFT (non-fungible token) boom of 2021-2022, several experimental projects emerged attempting to fuse Japanese swords with digital art. Some swordmakers attempted to tokenize "videos recording the entire sword-making process" and sell them as NFTs, and proof-of-concept experiments were conducted to represent sword ownership through NFTs.

However, significant practical challenges exist. Japanese sword ownership is regulated under the Swords and Firearms Law's registration certificate system, and NFT representation of ownership has no legal effect. Moreover, the value of swords is rooted in the experience of appreciating the physical object, a fundamental problem that digital copies cannot replace. As NFT enthusiasm has cooled, sword-related NFT initiatives have largely faded.

What DX Brings to the Sword Industry—Challenges and Prospects

The greatest change digital transformation brings to the Japanese sword market is likely the elimination of information asymmetry. Information once known only by experts—sword pricing, authentication standards, and historical context—is now accessible to general collectors through digital platforms. Over the long term, this should improve market transparency, increase new entrants, and revitalize the industry as a whole.

Without changing its essential nature as a traditional craft, utilizing digital technology as a "bridge tool"—this is the form of DX demanded of the sword industry in the 2020s.