Deciphering the Scale of the Nihontō Market — The Limits of Official Statistics and the Alternative Indicators Used by the Industry

Anyone involved in the nihontō industry has wondered at some point: just how large is this market? Yet no official market-size statistics calculated by a government agency or industry organization exist for the nihontō market, which is one segment of the fine-art and antiques field. There is no exchange like a stock market, and no mechanism that aggregates all transactions. Even so, combining multiple indirect indicators makes it possible to sketch the contours of the market to some degree.

Why the "Exact Scale" of the Nihontō Market Cannot Be Known

Trading in nihontō is dispersed across multiple channels.

• Specialist sword dealers
• Antique dealers
• Auctions
• Private transactions between individuals
• Online platforms in recent years

Each channel manages its own transactions, and no unified system exists to aggregate transaction values across the industry. Exports overseas and private transfers between collectors are also constituent elements of the market scale, but these too are difficult to capture comprehensively. The upshot is that the scale of the nihontō market cannot move beyond the realm of "estimation."

Clues from Public Statistics — The Registration Certificate as an Indicator

One of the rare public data points is the registration certificate for art swords issued under the Act for Controlling the Possession of Firearms or Swords and Other Such Weapons (Jūtōhō). Possessing a nihontō within Japan requires a registration certificate issued by the prefectural Board of Education, and newly discovered or reported swords are issued a registration certificate. The number of newly issued registration certificates can sometimes be ascertained from documents compiled by each prefectural Board of Education or by the Agency for Cultural Affairs, making it one clue for gauging the volume of swords newly entering the market. It should be noted, however, that the issuance of a registration certificate represents "the number of swords newly registered" — it does not in itself indicate the number of buy-and-sell transactions for swords already registered. Many pieces held in old collections are sold upon a change of generation or through inheritance and circulate under existing registration certificates, so the number of registration certificates issued alone cannot measure the total transaction volume of the market.

Inferences from the Activity Scale of Industry Organizations and Appraisal Bodies

Another clue lies in the number of kanteisho (appraisal certificates) issued by appraisal bodies such as NBTHK, and in the membership figures and number of member shops belonging to the industry organizations that sword dealers nationwide have joined. The number of kanteisho applications serves as at least a gauge of how many swords circulated in the market that year and required appraisal and evaluation. The scale and frequency of sword fairs, sealed-bid sales, and exhibition-and-sale events held around the country are also sometimes consulted as supplementary indicators for measuring the activity level of the industry. None of these directly express the market scale itself as a number, but overlaying multiple indicators makes it easier to grasp broad trends such as whether the industry is flourishing or stagnating.

The Impact of the Shift Online on Market Visibility

The spread of nihontō trading onto online platforms in recent years carries a certain significance from the standpoint of market visibility as well. Information that previously depended on face-to-face interaction at sword dealers' shops or at sword fairs can now be viewed at a glance as online listings and price ranges. It should be kept in mind, however, that this has not made it possible to grasp the total transaction value of the entire market — it has simply meant that some portion of transactions has become visible online. Even so, being able to continuously track the number of listed items and trends in price ranges represents a significant change compared with the earlier era when face-to-face trading was dominant.

The Expansion of Overseas Demand and Its Impact on Market Scale

What is often discussed in recent years is the expansion of demand from overseas nihontō enthusiasts and collectors. Backed by movements in the yen exchange rate and a growing interest in Japanese culture, overseas buyers are said to have an increasing presence. On this point too, however, no statistics exist that show an accurate total including overseas transactions, and the reality is that it remains confined to qualitative remarks based on the impressions of industry insiders and individual transaction cases. When speaking about market scale, the perspective of how to combine and read such fragmentary information itself becomes important. The understanding that, while domestic demand is changing gradually, overseas demand as a new variable is making the estimate of market scale all the more complex is probably close to the actual situation.

Engaging with the Market in Light of the Limits of Statistics

As outlined above, the scale of the nihontō market cannot be expressed in a single definitive figure. However, by viewing multiple alternative indicators side by side, it is possible to grasp the broad trend of which direction the market is moving.

• Trends in registration certificate issuances
• Activity volume of appraisal bodies
• Scale of industry organizations
• Listing data on online platforms

Rather than taking any single statistic at face value, the stance of combining and reading multiple fragments of information is the indispensable perspective for understanding this market.

Continuously tracking these multiple alternative indicators is useful not only for industry insiders but also for those considering purchasing or collecting nihontō in the future. Rather than reacting to every rise and fall in a particular statistic, viewing multiple angles side by side — such as trends in registration certificates and shifts in the number of listed items — will allow one to maintain a view of the market that is not swept along by excessive optimism or pessimism.

At TOUKENZA, listed swords can be browsed through the online catalog, allowing visitors to get a glimpse of the market through price ranges and listing status. If there is a piece of interest, it is also possible to make contact through the inquiry form.